02 / Shape • 25 min
Turn the problem into a small bet.
One outcome, one workflow and a clear condition for changing direction.
Product bet
Understand the move.
Start a useful draft now.
Copy one observed problem from your demand brief and write a single outcome that person should reach. Add one feature you will deliberately leave out.
Draft checkpoint: save the first honest note, then stop and do the observation. This checkpoint stays a draft; it does not complete the mission or verify research.
A product bet connects the problem you observed to a change you can test. Decide what a person should be able to do, then work backwards to the smallest useful workflow.
Write your success threshold before results arrive. Make it specific enough to disagree with, and include what you will do if the test fails. A deadline limits the cost of being wrong.
Inspect a worked example (optional)
Worked example · continuing the studio project
One useful handoff, end to end
For studio leads who rebuild kickoff briefs, test a shared intake page with three studios. A client submits the brief; the lead checks missing answers and shares it. Continue if two studios use it on a second project within 14 days. Exclude scheduling and invoicing.
The smaller bet defines the workflow, repeat behaviour, time limit and deliberate exclusions.
Compare with a weaker answer
Build an all-in-one platform with AI summaries, a dashboard and collaboration. Success means good feedback.
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